After hurting MGB in Bihar, can Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM harm Mamta Banerjee in Bengal

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On November 10, when the Bihar meeting election end result 2020 was being declared, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) chief Asaduddin Owaisi turned his gun in the direction of West Bengal Congress unit head Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury. Adhir had referred to as Owaise a ‘Vote-cutter’.  Attacking Adhir Ranjan in his reply, Owaisi requested, ‘Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury has to reply why the situation of Muslims is so unhealthy in his constituency. He has to say what he did for Muslims.” This units the tone for Bengal Assembly Election 2021 so far as AIMIM and Asaduddin Owaisi is anxious. 

The AIMIM fielded 16 candidates in Seemanchal and primarily focused the RJD-Congress alliance votes, which helped NDA in Bihar. An identical state of affairs could also be repeated in West Bengal in the course of the upcoming polls – the social gathering might harm Mamata’s substantiate Muslim vote share within the State.

The social gathering’s robust affect was seen within the Seemanchal constituencies – AIMIM’s Muhammed Izhar Asfi gained Kochadhaman by defeating JD(U) MLA Mujahid Alam). In Kishanganj, the place AIMIM misplaced; Amour, which was gained by AIMIM’s Bihar President Akhtar-ul Iman by defeating Congress MLA Jaleel Mastan; Bahadurganj, gained by AIMIM’s Mohammed Anzar Nayeemi by defeating Congress’ Tauseef Alam; Baisi, gained by AIMIM’s Syed Ruknuddin Ahmad by defeating RJD’s Haji Abdus Subhan; Thakurganj, the place AIMIM misplaced; and Jokihat, gained by AIMIM’s Shahnawaz Alam who defeated his brother Sarfaraz Alam of RJD.

Owaisi’s social gathering managed to safe solely 5 seats in Bihar meeting elections. Still, it was sufficient to scuttle the Mahagathbandhan’s hopes of outdoing the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) within the State.

His big developments within the Bihar ballot outcomes by successful 5 seats out of 24 within the Seemanchal area has now turn into an eye-opener for the Trinamool Congress – contemplating AIMIM a ‘vote-cutter’ – which goes to wrest the saffron brigade within the West Bengal meeting elections 2021.

Having some affect amongst Muslim voters in Bengal’s bordering areas, AIMIM has determined to contest the 2021 polls, reportedly with the help of one of many robust Muslim clerics in Bengal – Abbas Siddiqui.

Siddiqui, in one in every of his public rallies, referred to as himself a ‘massive fan’ of Owaisi. Siddiqui’s help to AIMIM is probably going going to wreck Mamata Banerjee’s sport plan in securing the magic determine, an impact just like the one felt in Bihar by Tejashwi Yadav of the Rashtriya Janata Dal.

Siddiqui is an influential cleric of the Furfura Sharif Darbar, situated in Jangipara in Hooghly district. His choice to contest the 2021 state elections whereas extending his needs to Owaisi might be a priority for TMC as a result of Muslim vote share’s inevitable division.

Although he’s politically standing towards the BJP, his choice to contest the meeting polls is probably going to assist the saffron brigade. With greater than 31 p.c vote share – Muslims are undeniably a deciding issue to show the tables for any political social gathering in West Bengal.

They have been additionally the deciding issue in the course of the Left rule within the State till TMC chief Mamata Banerjee got here to energy in 2011. Banerjee is aware of all too nicely that any vital division within the Muslim vote share – a deciding consider practically 90 out of 294 Assembly seats within the State – might jeopardize her mission for the upcoming polls.

Owaisi noticed an enormous political alternative in Bengal, and since 2011 his social gathering started gradual work beginning within the bordering areas of the State the place the Muslim inhabitants is excessive.

After successful 5 seats in Bihar – Owaisi is prone to pay extra consideration to Bengal. Even although he but to launch AIMIM formally within the State, the chief has already been participating native youths to unfold AIMIM’s ideology and the social gathering’s stand in the direction of Muslims, primarily in Kolkata, North Dinajpur, Malda, Murshidabad, Jalpaiguri, and Nadia districts.

Earlier, AIMIM’s West Bengal head Jamirul Hassan had claimed that they’re definitely going to contest the State’s election, however the variety of seats to contest can be determined solely after the Bihar ballot outcomes.

In the final Lok Sabha elections, the State had witnessed polarised two-way voting. BJP had overtly performed their Hindu card, whereas TMC banked on the Muslims. Such was the polarisation that even the Matuas (robust supporters of TMC) voted for BJP for elevating the Citizenship difficulty.

While polarization has turn into a priority for TMC – as Hindu votes are operating in the direction of the BJP – Abbas Siddiqui and AIMIM’s plan to contest the 2021 election might show to be a boon to BJP. Compared to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections 2019, TMC acquired 43 p.c of the vote regardless of 12 seats, which was 5 p.c extra (because of Muslim help). In 2014 TMC acquired 34 seats, whereas in 2019, it secured Only managed to get 22.

On the opposite hand, BJP’s vote share was 12 p.c within the 2016 meeting elections, and it was 39 p.c within the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. This improve in 27 p.c vote share was primarily as a result of Hindus’ alliance with the saffron social gathering.

In West Bengal, about 22 p.c of Muslims stay in Kolkata, whereas nearly all of them, about 67 p.c, stay in Murshidabad district. The second and third highest Muslim inhabitants is 52 p.c in North Dinajpur and 53 p.c in Malda. In North Dinajpur and South Dinajpur, the Muslim group is 49.92 p.c and 25 p.c, respectively.

West Bengal has the second-highest Muslim inhabitants of India at round 2.47 crore – about 27.5 p.c of the State’s inhabitants. In the 2016 meeting elections, TMC was forward in about 90 minority-dominated seats. The densely Muslim populated areas comprise greater than 40 p.c of the voters – TMC was forward in 60 of 65 meeting constituencies.

Banking on Muslims AIMIM, and Abbas Siddiqui – the social gathering that revolves primarily round minorities – can play a spoilsport for Mamta ‘Didi.’

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