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Polling Problems – The New York Times

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The polls have been improper once more, and far of America desires to know why.

Dozens of pre-election polls steered that Joe Biden would beat President Trump by a large margin, however the race as a substitute got here down to 1 or two share factors in a handful of states. Polls additionally indicated that Democrats would do significantly better than they did in congressional races.

So what occurred? Here are six key factors:

1. In the previous couple of years, Republican voters appear to have change into much less prepared to answer polls. Maybe that shouldn’t be stunning, given Trump’s assaults on the media, science and different establishments.

2. This phenomenon isn’t merely about working-class whites. Pollsters have been cautious to incorporate extra of those voters of their samples than 4 years in the past, when the polls additionally missed, nevertheless it didn’t remedy the issue. One seemingly motive: Even inside demographic teams — say, unbiased, older, middle-income white girls — individuals who responded to polls this yr leaned extra Democratic than individuals who didn’t.

3. It’s additionally not nearly Trump. Polls missed in a number of Senate races much more than within the presidential race, which suggests they did an particularly poor job of discovering individuals who voted for Biden on the high and a Republican decrease down the poll.

4. Most of the straightforward options are most likely not actual options. Since Election Day, some marketing campaign operatives have claimed their non-public polls have been extra correct than the general public polls. That appears extra false than true. Biden, Trump and each events campaigned as if their very own polls matched the general public polls, specializing in some states that have been not likely aggressive and abandoning others that have been shut.

5. Polls have nonetheless been extra correct during the last 4 years than they have been for a lot of the 20th century. As pollsters get extra details about this yr’s election and what went improper, they may attempt to repair the issues, a lot as they did up to now. A brand new problem: In the smartphone age, ballot response charges are far decrease than they was once.

6. We journalists can do a greater job of conveying the uncertainty in polls. Polls won’t ever be excellent. Capturing the opinions of a big, various nation is just too troublesome. And in right now’s carefully divided U.S., small polling errors could make underdogs appear to be favorites and vice versa. All of us — journalists, marketing campaign strategists and the various Americans who’ve change into obsessive about politics — shouldn’t overlook this. We simply received one other reminder.

And my colleague Nate Cohn, who is aware of extra about this topic than nearly anyone, factors out {that a} important chunk of the error concerned Hispanic voters. Nate has additionally mentioned polling on episodes of “The Daily” and “The Argument” podcasts.

Elsewhere: Sarah Isgur of The Dispatch says the issue isn’t about Trump voters who lie about their desire. Charles Franklin of Marquette University suggests the pandemic could have affected turnout in stunning methods. Kristen Soltis Anderson, a Republican pollster, notes that polls in lots of states will nonetheless be “incredibly close” to the ultimate end result.

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The planet’s future: Climate change shall be central to Biden’s presidency. Here’s what he plans to do about it.

Lives Lived: Lucille Bridges braved abuse from white protesters as she and her 6-year-old daughter, Ruby, walked to an all-white college in New Orleans in 1960, crossing one of many segregated South’s most rigidly defended colour strains. Bridges died at 86.

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These are troublesome instances for dwell theater. The pandemic has shut down Broadway and lots of native theaters since March, leaving actors, stagehands and others out of labor and followers lacking the reveals. But there’s a technique that theater is managing to thrive proper now: Broadway has change into a much bigger supply of televised leisure.

An incomplete listing of current and upcoming releases consists of “The Prom,” “The Boys in the Band,” “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” “West Side Story” and “Wicked.” The movie model of “Hamilton” was so widespread that it contributed to a bump in sign-ups for Disney Plus, The Verge reviews. And in a Broadway first, a musical targeted on the lifetime of Diana, Princess of Wales is about to debut on Netflix earlier than the stage manufacturing opens.

Why is that this occurring now? One motive is streaming providers’ “insatiable desire for content, even niche content,” Alexis Soloski writes in The Times. There’s additionally extra mingling throughout theater, movie and tv than up to now. The playwright Jeremy O. Harris, who wrote “Slave Play,” signed a take care of HBO this yr; Phoebe Waller-Bridge, who initially wrote and carried out “Fleabag” as a one-woman play, signed one with Amazon.

Some critics fear that movie variations will cannibalize dwell ticket gross sales. But no movie can completely reproduce the expertise of a dwell present. Just take a look at social media’s horrified response to final yr’s film model of “Cats.”

The Times recommends: “What the Constitution Means to Me,” Heidi Schreck’s affecting play in regards to the doc’s influence on our day by day lives.

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